May 19, 2012, the grand final of 2012 UEFA Champions League at Munich Allianz Arena, with local team Bayern Munich Vs Chelsea FC.
We show now media impact analysis before the final. We will include media coverage analysis after the final, in an update of this post.
Second part of this post is an analysis of the commercial implications of this final for Bayern and Chelsea, due to the strong relationship in professional football between media coverage and brand value.
Structure of this post:
Part 1. Expected stars of the final. Media Coverage analysis
Part 2. Champions league Economic Impact: media coverage, media and brand value, commercial power.
Part 3. And the winner is Chelsea FC. Photo Gallery
Appendix 1: Football tactics analysis, by Zonal Marking
Appendix 2. The big game for sponsors
Appendix 3. Twitter Impact Analysis, by ExactTarget
UEFA Champions League Final As a Crisis Event
This is the big event in football (soccer) of the year at clubs level. This is a defining moment for teams and players taking part of a game that caputers worldwide attention among football fans.
The winning title game in top sports is a crucial moment in sportive life for all people and institutions involved. In terms of business analysis, the outcome of the game has tremendous impact for the winning side. Brand equity of winners received a huge positive shock, that has normally lasting effects, especially for those with higher responsibilities and achievements in contributing to the final victory. In some particular cases, there is a before and after the final in the biography of players and teams.
This is why we analyze this king of sport events as a crisis in the story of players and clubs. We proposed in this blog this analysis of crucial games as a crisis context in our study about the impact in social media (Twitter) of the semifinals of this UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich and FC Barcelona Vs Chelsea (you can see the cases by clicking the link).
Now we propose an analysis of the grand final. We want to present you results about some intangible issues: Who are the stars of this final? Who are the players that take the glory of the final?
As always in this post, we sustain our analysis in metrics. This time we use media coverage analysis in newspapers. We have used this technique profusely in this post. Media impact analysis in sports is the core approach and contribution proposed by our sport research team, Economics, Sport and Intangibles, ESI Universidad de Navarra.
The expected stars of the final. Chelsea FC and Bayern Munich Players. Media Impact Analysis
We come directly to the results. We show in the following figures the stars that media are expecting to appear in the grand final, in each team. This is measures by media coverage given to each player in news directly related to the the final Chelsea Vs Bayern Munich. It refers to monitoring of news from newspapers worldwide, covering more than 5,000 newspapers). First results refer to media appearance during the last month, since both teams qualified to the final by eliminating FC Barcelona and Real Madrid. Results of media impact are calculated as the share of all news about all team members that each single football players receive.
We start first with results concerning Chelsea FC players.
We find that the football star from FC Chelsea most talked about during the last month in relation with the final vs Bayern Munich is veteran John Terry. He captures 13.5% of all news. Even if Terry is a defender, he is a big star in the team, as he is ahome grown player and a team leader. The embarrassing result is that he will not play the final for sure, as he is suspended. He received a red card (explused from the pitch) after an unfair aggression against FC Barcelona rival Alexis. This misbehaviour, which was not even ‘needed’ for protecting Chelsea FC sport interests, as it did not correpond to a complicated defensive action. This action put in danger the qualifying options of his team. London club did eventually resist FC Barcelona ferocious attacks and eventually succeed in qualifyin to the final. Some called it the biggest sport miracle in Chelsea FC story.
So, we find that the main expected star in the Chelsea FC side is someone that will not even play the game. This result is again a clear reflect of the ‘crisis profile’ of big events: they create a tremendous media impact, for the good or for the bad.
Puting aside the case of the suspended bad boy terry, we find that first international media reference in Chelsea FC team is Didier Drogba. He receives 12.6% of all mentions. Almost tie in second place comes Fernando Torres, El Niño – The Kid, with a 12.1% share. Both strikers are the team references, as third place is at a huge distance in terms of emdia attention. This is david Cahill, with 8% share. He has received substantial media coverage due to the incertitude about his presence in the final due to injury problems. His participation is urgently needed, as Chelsea FC suffers from the absence of other defenders suspended. Chelsea FC has another three players suspended due to the accumulation of yellow cards (admonition with no direct expulsation from the game, except if you collect two yellow cards within a game). Suspended Ivanovic takes fifth place. This was a especially personal painful case: he received a yellow card implying suspension for the final game during semifinal against FC Barcelona. He was apparently unaware of his situation until he learned the consequences live in a post-game interview. Suspended Ramires and Meireles (red bars) receive also relevant media attention.
Turning now our attention to Bayern Munich stars to shine in the final, according to media impact analysis, we find that team reference is striker Mario Gómez. He receives 13.6% of all mentions to Bayern players. His degree os media attraction is almost exactly the same than the one reached by terry in the other side. The obvious difference is that the German player will play the game. He is the main hope for Bayern and the main source of concern for Chelsea coach and supporters. He has scored 12 goals in the current UEFA Champions League season. This is an all time record, if we exclude the mark obtained also this season by FC Barcelona mega star Lionel Messi, with 14 goals. Gómez can approach or equalize the record by the Argentinian star.
Second and third place go to Robben (12.3% share) and Frank Rybéri (11.9%). Both are team references and are crucial players in the football elaboration of Bayern Munich. It is well known that both have had some ego problems and disputes. Now the advantage is for Robben, but the differences are so thin that the impact of the final will fix their position in the team. We find in fourth position goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, with 10% of all news mentions. It is unusual to find goalkeepers sharing news protagonism with top midfielders and forwards. Neuer has earned his status of star to watch for the final as he played a decisive role in the semifinals Vs Real Madrid. Qualification was decided in the penalty round, as the game finished draw 2-1 (aggregate 3-3) after prolongation. He was able to block the shots by mega stars Cristiano Ronaldo and Kaka.
Other relevant players for the final, according to media attention, are Schwensteiger (7,4%), Müller (7.0%), Boateng (5.6%) and Lahm (5.4%). Some of these players had a more relevant role at the beginning of the sseason, but injuries and average sport perfomance make that they are currently not expected as the key players in the final.
The Champions League final of the suspended players
There are as much as seven players that cannot play the final matrch due to suspension because of red card (John terry) or accumulation of yellow cards. This is probably a record number in the history of the UEFA Champions League finals.
These sport sanctions may affect the winning chances of each team, as if obliges the team sport managers to design new team strategies as some suspended players are regular team players.
We have seen that apparently the team suffering the most delicate absence is Chelsea FC, with the suspension of defender John Terry. This so important media attention may also be due to the fact that sanction is due to a red card action.
Summing up the weight of all players suspended in each team, we find that media consider that this loss is much more relevant for Chelsea FC camp. Suspended players generate 27% of all news abut the team, while Byaern Munich suspended players account only for 10% of all mentions.
Winning chances and media impact analysis
Both Chelsea and Bayern Munich beated in the semifinals the archfavorites for the final, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid. Now in the final, which team is the favorite one to win the 2012 UEFA Champions League?
Bayern Munich counts with a very relevant circumstatial advantage: he benefits of playing the final at home. Normally finals are played in a neutral city. This time we have this benefit for Bayern Munich as a matter of chance, as Bayern Munich bid and was selected for hosting the final three years ago.
According to the leading football online betting firm, Bwin, Bayern Munich has almost exactly 65% of chances of winning the title. Remaining 35% go to Chelsea FC.
We show now which is the power of each team in terms of media coverage received globally by team members, in news related with the final, during the last four weeks. We find that Chelsea FC is leading the talk. Chelsea players receive 54% of all news and mentions about the final, against a 46% value for players from Bayern Munich.
Previous figure refers to global media impact of all players in the team roster of each team. This means that it include also news about suspended players. Even if they contribute to the overall media impact of the team, they will no contribute directly to win the title as they are banned for playing the final. We adjust the data in the following figure by including only news about players that can play the final match. In this case, we find that global media coverage is almost perfectly tied, with a sligh advantadge for Bayern Munich 51-49.
Media attention to team sport managers
Football players are the protagonists of the sport spectacle, and they receive all media attention. But technical leaders of the group are essential and may have a critical influence in the final outcome of the game. We have monitored media attention given to team sport managers. We have estimated the number of news as the share they represent to news received by all football players in theit team.
The tactical battle opposes Ruud Heynckes in Bayern Munich versus Roberto Di Matteo in Chelsea FC. Heynckes is a veteran coach with long experience and many sport sucessess as trainer. Di Matteo is a young trainer, he is in an interim position as coach, in replacement of former trainer Villas-Boas.
Very surprisingly to us, our empirical data tell us that during these four last weeks, media reference is by far Di Matteo. he receives an amount of news equivalent to 17.6% of all news received by all players in Chelsea team. Ruud Heynckes receives only 8.4%.
Views by Media in United Kingdom
Previous results were all about global media impact. In this section we show the results as they are perceived by media in United Kingdom. We will present how things about the final are presented in Britain in terms of quantitative media coverage. We will use global results as terms of comparison.
We find in the first figure that media in United Kingdom increase attention to the controversy and problems caused by red card received by John Terry. Media share in Britain increases to 20.9%, compared to global value of 13.5%. Cahill injury evolution receives more media attention in Britain than in general.
As for media coverage in Britain of rival players, we find that media in Britain is focused (obsessed?) by score killer Mario Gómez. Lahm and Schweingeister receive more attention than average.
Of course, local stars receive much more media attention by Bristh media than rival players from Bayern Munich. 71% of all news in United Kingdom about players in the final refer to Chelsea FC team players (excluding suspended players in both teams). Global rate was 49%.
Views by Media in Germany
Now we show the same analysis concerning media treatment given to Chelsea and Bayern Munich by newspapers in Germany.
We find that German newspapers do not pay any attention to Fernando Torreas, compared to global and British coverage. All media is focused in Drogba’s role in the final. He receives 17.5% of all news, compared to the global average of 12.6%.
As for media coverage of local team stars, we find, quite surprisingly, that mario Gómez deserves less media attention in Germany than abroad. (his shares drops from 13.6% to 11.8%. This benefits to Arjen Robben, who is currently the leading media reference in German newspapers, with a 15.4% share. German players (except Gómez) tend to receive a slighly higger media attention in Germany.
Finally, moving to the analysis of the media attention in Germany given to players from both participating teams, we have as expected the reverse result than found for British media. Now German newspapers reserve 65% of all news mentions to Bayern Munich players.
Champions League Final 2011: FC Barcelona Vs Manchester United, Messi Vs Rooney
We performed last year a similar analysis at ESI Universidad de Navarra concerning the media impact analysis of UEFA Champions League Final 2011 at Wembley, FC Barcelona Vs Manchester United.
We run a before the game analysis, similar to 2012 analysis. Last year we focussed our analysis in how media was giving coverage to leading mega star in each team: Wayne Rooney in Manchester United, Lionel Messi in FC Barcelona.
We scrutinized how media attention to these two rival stars was shared by media from different countries. This gave us a measure of the geographic brand power of top global brands in football.
You can find more information about this analysis in our Economics, Sport and Intangibles, Universidad de Navarra section. Below you have the figures concerning the courntries more oriented to Manchester United (Figure 1) vs the countries more oriented to FC Barcelona (Figure 2).
PART 2. CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ECONOMIC IMPACT: MEDIA COVERAGE, MEDIA AND BRAND VALUE, COMMERCIAL POWER
There is much at stake in this final game of the UEFA Champions League, as always. This title is one of the biggest annual sport events.
Two teams and a lot of football stars quest for sport glory. Winning team reaches a new status of prestige and sport excellence.
There are also a lot of commercial and economic conequences linked to this 90 (120) minutes game. The most evident are the direct ones, like the monetary prize that UEFA gives to the winner and the finalist. There are also additional revenues from broadcasting rights, controlled also by UEFA. Players will receive bonusses from team and sponsors depending on the result.
UEFA Champions League final, as a major sport event with global TV and media coverage, is also a definitive branding event. It create new brands, and it reinforce the brand equity of those already existing. Winners become stars, and players with a crucial role in the final become heroes.
New heroes are inmmensely attractive for firms as a branding strategy through sposnorship deals. New heroes create a new legion of followers from every corner of the world, ready to buy their team jerseys or other products, and avid to watch in the future their sport performance evolution.
We will present in this section the extraordinary role that the UEFA Champions League plays in creating global brands, and its direct translation into increased commercial power.
All results in this section come from our reports (freely available) produced by our research center Economics, Sport and Intangibles, Universidad de Navarra.
Stage 1: UEFA Champions League has a huge impact in team media value
We measure at ESI Universidad de Navarra what we call media value of football players and football teams since 2006. Media value is estimated by total media coverage in newspapers received by players and teams during a whole season, both in national and international newspapers. Media value is the core factor explaining revenue creation in professional sport.
We have shown that UEFA Champions League plays a major role in total media value received by players and teams. The impact becomes massive when team reach the semifinal stage of the competition. See for instance the results concerning season 2006/07
Source: Report Media Value and Football, Season 2006/07, June 2007, ESI Universidad de Navarra, p. 22 (see here)
We have shown in our analysis that seasonal media value is made almost entirely of sport performance. We have found out this strong connection in sports we have studied like Formula One, Cycling, Tennis and Football.
In the next figure, we represent the media value of top football teams by June 2007, and we have estimated an econometric model of which would be the fair level of media value based exclusively in sport performance. You can find close values between actual and estimated values. It is interesting to notice that sport performance measures included past 10 season results. Main factors are present season results. but there is also a legacy effect: past sport performance influence present media value. Among past performance factors the leading one were results reached in Champions League, while past domestic success were almost no relevant.
Source: Report Media Value and Football,Mid Season 2006/07, February 2007, ESI Universidad de Navarra, Chapter 5, pp. 21-28. (see here)
Stage 2. Relationship between media value and revenues
As media value is a global reflect of sport performance, it is also a reflect of the spectacle produced by each player and a team during a whole season. This is why we should expect a strong relationship between media value and income. We have designed several studies to analyse the relationship between media value and revenues at individual and club level, and we find always a strong positive relationship between both variables.
Next figure presents the revenues obtained by top players in terms of media value (data 2007). We divide them between top 10 and following top 11-20 football players. All top 20 players are top football global stars. We find that they receive more or lest the same income in salaries. But differences in revenues explode when we look at revenues coming from personal marketing and publicity contracts. Top 10 players receive in average some 9 million euros per year, while following stars in the list (11 to 20) receive ‘just’ 3.5 million euros per year. Reaching top positions in the media value race has huge consequences in commercial power of football mega stars.
Source: Report Media Value and Football, Season 2006/07, June 2007, ESI Universidad de Navarra, p. 26 (see here)
We find a similar result when we turn to the analysis of the relationship between media value and revenues at football clubs level. There is a strong direct relationship both concerning TV rights and total revenues obtained by top football teams.
Source: Report Media Value and Football, Season 2009/10, June 2010, ESI Universidad de Navarra,Chapter 5, pp. 36-48 (see here, text in Spanish)
Source: Report Media Value and Football, Season 2009/10, June 2010, ESI Universidad de Navarra,Chapter 5, pp. 36-48 (see here, text in Spanish)
Stage 3. Top football players by media value, June 2011
Who are the current football mega stars by media value?
According to our last estimation, bu June 2011, the ranking is completely dominated by Lionel Messi (FC Barcelona). Second most valuable player is Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid). There were no football players from Bayern Munich or Chelsea FC among world top 10.
First place will be disputed again with all probability between Messi and CR7. But we expect to find more than one player from Champions final in the new list of season 2011/12, to be published by June 2012.
Stage 4. Top football teams by media value, June 2011
Finally, we present the current list (Juen 2011) of top football teams by media value.
Most valuable team is FC Barcelona, followed by Real Madrid. Chelsea FC appears 6th in the table. Bayern Munich take 9th possition. It it probable that winning team will finish between 3-5 position in the global ranking of season 2011/12.
PART 3: AND THE WINNER IS CHELSEA FC
Chelsea FC is the new UEFA Champions League 2012 winner. Drogba scored the definitive penalty, after Schwensteiger missed his shot. Didier Drogba was also the scorer in the regular time, saving Chelsea with his equalization in minute 86, near the end of the game. Müller gave an advance to Bayern Munich in minute 83.
This combination will probably make Didier Drogba become the media reference to global media coverage of the game. We will monitor it to identify the role given to all players and coaches by the media attention given to them.
Schwensteiger desperate after missing his penalty shot.
Photo gallery of the Champions League Final 2012 Bayern Munich Vs Chelsea FC
Lampard and Schwensteiger (BM)
Didier Drogba (CFC) in defensive tasks
David Luiz defending position against Mario Gómez (BM)
Bosingwa Vs Ribéry (BM)
Mario Gómez (BM) and Gary Cahill
Müller (BM) scores against Cech, minute 83: Bayern – Chelsea 1-0
Manuel Neuer, unable to avoid goal by Didier Drogba (1-1), minute 86.
Robben missing his penalty shot in prolongations (1-1), minute 96.
Appendix 1: Football tactics analysis, by Zonal Marking
You can check here the great and always interesting pre-game tactics analysis provided by zonalmarking.net.
(…) Perhaps there’s a wider context here. Real Madrid beat Barcelona to La Liga, with transition-based play overcoming tiki-taka. Dortmund’s victory over Bayern was something similar, as was Atletico’s win over Athletic in the Europa League final. Such results are hardly indicative of a seismic shift, but a win for Chelsea would be yet another victory for reactive football.
According to Zonalmarking, a defensive strategy like Mourinho Inter Vs Bayern 2010 or a Di Matteo Barcelona Vs Chelsea 2012 will pay for Chelsea purposes.
Jose Mourinho’s side played extremely defensively in the final two years ago, essentially continuing the strategy they’d used at the Nou Camp a few weeks earlier, despite the fact they were playing a much more attacking game in Serie A at the time. Will Chelsea do the same?
Broadly the same approach makes sense. No-one plays quite like Barcelona, but in terms of ball retention, Bayern are the closest thing. Barca lead the way in terms of average possession and pass completion rate across Europe’s major five leagues, but Bayern are second in both categories. Though they’ve always been a side with fine passers, they’ve become even more about retention since the final two years ago – then, they mixed possession play with direct play down the flanks from Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben. Those two are still in the side, of course, but tend to find themselves trying to break down packed, deep defences more frequently.
In a 0-0 context, Zonalmarking expects a game controlled by Bayern Munch in terms of ball possession.
There isn’t too much to say here. This is highly unlikely to be a possession battle – Bayern will dominate the ball, while Chelsea will focus upon organisation and counter-attacking quickly down the flanks. It’s difficult to see that Chelsea would be any better off by attempting to dominate the play. Around 60-65% Bayern possession is probable while the game is 0-0.
Bayern Munich key factors:
Chelsea defensive line. Chelsea could defend deep and narrow against Barcelona because Barcelona don’t have a natural number nine, nor do they like putting crosses into the box from wide positions. But this situation is different – first, Bayern do have a number nine in Mario Gomez. In combination with Chelsea missing both Terry and Ivanovic, his aerial power could be crucial and therefore Chelsea can’t drop too deep.
Second, Bayern have proper wingers on either side who will take advantage of being able to get up to full speed before taking on the full-backs. The caveat, of course, is that both Ribery and Robben play as inverted wingers and naturally want to come inside onto their stronger foot. Therefore, Chelsea will want to show them down the line, but not so much that they have time to cross – as both can do so, even with their weaker foot. It’s a complex equation for what should be a very simple problem – the basic conclusion is that Chelsea’s full-backs need to play well.
Chelsea key factors:
Chelsea transitions. This is absolutely key. Di Matteo will have studied Dortmund’s 5-2 German Cup final victory over Bayern last weekend, and noted how efficient and dangerous they were on the break. The formula was simple – Dortmund’s attacking midfielder Shinji Kagawa make himself available for the out-ball, then the Dortmund wingers Kevin Grosskreutz and Jakub Blaszczykowski immediately sped past the Bayern full-backs, taking advantage of a moment’s hesistation from Lahm and Alaba when Bayern lost the ball. Quickly, 3 v 2 and 4 v 3 situations emerged on the break.
The absence of Ramires is a huge blow in this respect, but Malouda and Kalou have the discipline and energy required to form a second bank of four, then burst towards goal. But it’s important that Chelsea have a clear line of service to them – Lampard has been brilliant playing balls out to Ramires from deep in recent weeks and will need to do the same here, and if Mata plays as the number ten, he has to be intelligent with his movement like Kagawa was, moving deep into the channels and finding space, then laying the ball off quickly for the wingers speeding past him.
Appendix 2. The big game for sponsors
Not only Bayern and Chelsea are in front of a decissive game in May 19, 2012. Sponsors also play an can win a lot, or not.
This will be a Adidas final, as the German firm is sportwear sponsor of both Bayern Munich and Chelsea FC. Last year there was a Nike final, with sponsored teams FC Barcelona and Manchester United.
These are the ad weapons used by Adidas to activate the sponsorship and increase brand awareness.
adidas Fußball – UEFA Champions League Finals: go all in for your team! Day 1!
adidas Fußball – UEFA Champions League Finals: go all in for your team! Day 2!
adidas Fußball – UEFA Champions League Finals: go all in for your team! Day 3!
Many readers know now that Nike has launched an astonishing ad as powerful marketing reaction. This is a move very similar to ambush marketing, as Nike has deployed all means (mainly in Twitter with promoted top Tweets and TT hasthtag) to completely control social media conversation, just the day before the grand Adidas final. You can watch here the three minutes Youtube video that is getting extraordinary viral diffusion and an overwelming positive acceptance among football fans. Of course, not surprisingly, the video includes some Nike stars playing in the final, like Frank Ribéry who even appears as the cover caption of the video (wearing a Nike France team jersey).
Appendix 3: Measuring the Twitter impact of Chelsea winning the Champions 2012
Exact Target Social Media Lab has monitored the Twitter impact of Chelsea winning the Champions League 2012.
You can access the original content here at exacttarget.com
Main results, according to authors are:
- Over 1.2 million tweets during the match
- Roberto Di Matteo was the top tweeted coach with 24,983 tweets
- Samsung declared victors as top tweet sponsor with over 90% of the sponsor tweets
- The top re-tweeted tweet have 7015 Retweets
- Great Britain led the countries with the most tweets at 22.83%
- Majority of the Tweet were in English with 68%
Here is an infographic summarising all the results.
Post by @NewsReputation (Twitter Account)