Real Madrid Vs Bayern Munich in Madrid 25 April 2012. Second leg of the 2012 UEFA Champions League Semifinals.
*** New Champions League Post: Stars of FC Chelsea Vs Bayern Munich 2012 Grand Final UEFA Champions League. Media Analysis Before and After Game
This is our fourth post in the series about football (soccer) and measuring behaviour of supporters using social media analysis, with Twitter content analysis.
Like in the previous two posts of this blog, we will provide some measures about perception bias of football club supporters, using the information published in Twitter.
We analyzed first the case of the Spanish Clasico FC Barcelona Vs Real Madrid, showing who were the most relevant stars of the match in global Twitter audience. We found also that the majority of people in Twitter worldwide expected a local win (60% of all predictions). Real Madrid actually won 1-2, a victory expected only by 22% of all twitter users.
We also presented a couple of days ago the results concerning the predicting behavior about the match FC Barcelona Vs Chelsea. We studied in that case how biased the expected sport success is biased by Twitter users living in the directly affected cities, Barcelona and London. Passion provoking biased personal perception of team supporters is a largely expected and almost self evident result. But the interesting thing is to use Twitter driven knowledge to assess the extent of the bias in each supporters camp. This provides information about which team supporters are more confident with their team success and which supporters are more distanced from actual winning probabilities measured by external sources (on-line professional betting firms).
We perform again the same analysis applied to the second semifinal, Real Madrid Vs Bayern Munich. This time we add an additional analysis: which are the predictions from rival team supporters?
First result refers to predictions made by Twitter users in Madrid city. We find as expected a massive confidence in Real Madrid sport performance, as 91% people expect that Real Madrid will beat Bayern Munich. Real Madrid lost the first leg match in Germany, 2-1. This means that in some cases, even if Real Madrid wins at home, it requires winning by a 1-0 or by a more than one goal of difference. We find that there are some 9% of bettors that expect Real Madrid winning but Bayern Munich going to the final. This means that 82% people in Madrid expects that Real Madrid will reach the final game versus Chelsea FC. Optimism and confidence is strong, but it is slightly lower than positive expectation showed by people from Barcelona about FC Barcelona success (89%), that did not actually happen.
There are only 3% of people publishing tweets in Madrid expecting even that local team will lose the match at home. Living in Madrid does not mean necessarily being a Real Madrid supporter. There are a fraction of people in Madrid supporting rival clubs, like Atlético de Madrid or even FC Barcelona.
Now, the analysis concerning the expected results by Bayern Munich supporters. Surprisingly for us, we found a very limited number of Twitter predictions emerging from the city of Munich in Germany, that made the results not representative. We have been forced to analyse all game forecasts made by all football supporters in Germany to gather a relevant number of predictions.
The limited amount of predictions about Real Madrid – Bayern Munich game in comparison to predictions in Madrid, Barcelona and London may arise from different reasons. The most important one is that this result is telling us that Twitter has a smaller penetration rate among internet users in Germany than in Spain and Britain. Another explanation is that people in Germany feel less appealing in making personal forecast about football results, while this is a tradition in Spain (‘porras’) and in Britain (well known sport betting culture). Third explanation may be that people in Munich are less interested than people in Madrid with football and with this game; but knowing the massive popularity of football in Germany, this cause would be weak at most.
Again, as expected, predictions coming from Germany are much more positive about the chances for Bayern Munich eliminating Real Madrid. 73% people expect that Bayern Munich will be able to go to the final, at home, as it will be played in the Allianz Arena, in Munich. Among them, 55% even expect that Bayern will be able to beat Real Madrid away, while another 18% feel that Bayern Munich will lose the game, but the advance got in Munich will be enough to create an advantage in aggregate result. Some 27% fear that Real Madrid will win and eliminate Bayern Munich. Remember that these are predictions from all Germany, and they can come from people strongly disliking Bayern Munich or have Real Madrid as preferred team.
Combining both results, we have that people from Madrid are more confident than people from Germany about the sport success of their local team.
The announced third element of this post is to show views coming from Barcelona city. Some of you familiar with football (soccer) may now that Real Madrid and FC Barcelona are arch-rivals teams. Rivalry is not closed to local national competition, the Spanish Liga. Both teams have been tremendously successful in international competitions. For many supporters, an international success of the rival team is seen as harming for its own interests and pride. Many (not all) supporters in both camps strongly wish that the rival team is eliminated by a non Spanish team. See for instance the public statement by former president of FC Barcelona Joan Gaspart: “I could not care less about the game between Madrid and Bayern. I don’t care if they are a Spanish team. I am anti-Madridista” (Goal.com 25 April 2012)
Using Twitter content analysis we can appreciate how this rivalry influences predictions about sport performance. We have monitored predictions about Real Madrid Vs Bayern Munich game published by people in Barcelona. This case is specially sensitive and interesting in the present framework, as FC Barcelona was eliminated the day before Real Madrid is fighting for reaching the final game. After FC Barcelona failure, as it usually happens, some Real Madrid fans shown their happiness for Barcelona elimination. This reaction may in return influence predictions from FC Barcelona supporters about Real Madrid chances.
We find that just 50% people in Barcelona expect that Real Madrid will reach the final against Chelsea. This is much lower than sentiment in Madrid (82%), but higher than what supporters expect in Germany. Of course, this result is not intended to be considered as something representative about sentiments of all people in Barcelona. It just shows manifested preferences from a very small non representative share of people, as we have explained in a previous post. But even if not representative, they are revealing, and they show that rivalry strongly affects and bias personal perception about sport performance. The results reflect probably more a wish than a actual inner perception about the expected match result.
What about actual qualifying probabilities of each team?
Like in the previous post, we look at estimations established by the leading professional on-line betting firm, Bwin.com. Based in the odds offered to bettors, the gambling company estimates that Real Madrid is favorite to go to the final, with 62% of probabilities. Bayern Munich is assigned with 38% of probabilities of success.
This means that over optimism is each camp is of 20 points in Madrid, and 35 points in Germany. Predictions made by people in Barcelona are more positive than the actual ones concerning the chances of Bayern Munich to go to the final (prediction of 50% Vs actual probability of 38%).
Update: Bayern Munich goes to the grand final, playing at home against Chelsea FC.
About Media Impact and Sport:
See our studies about measuring media impact and media value in football and other sports in our site, Economics, Sport and Intangibles, Universidad de Navarra
Also, other posts about sport and media analysis in this blog:
Appendix 1: Youtube Videos about Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Video 1. Game Highlights. Duration: 7:39. Music Techno
Video 2. Last winnning penalty, by Bastian Schweinsteiger (TV capture, average video quality, extreme intensity)
Video 3. All series of penalties. Comments in Portuguese
(Removed by user)
Video 4. Video with goals + all penalties. Duration: 5:17. Good image quality
Appendix 2: Gallery
Source of photos: El País, 26 April 2012
Cristiano Ronaldo with Manuel Neuer. Source: Claudio Alvarez, El País
Ribery and Xabi Alonso. Source: L’Equipe
Casillas in penalty Vs Real Madrid. Source: Alvaro García, El País
Bayern Munich supporters in Santiago Bernabeu. Source: El País (Christian Koerpsel)
Cristiano Ronaldo. Source: Alvaro García, El País
Sergio Ramos missing penalty Vs Bayern Munich. Source: Claudio Alvarez, El País
Source: Felix Ordóñez, El País
Bayern Munich celebrating qualification for Champions League final. Source: Juanjo Martín, El País
Mario Gómez celebration.
Appendix 3. Tactics Analysis
You can check here football game detailed tactics analysis provided by ZonalMarking.net.